WPB: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced that global oil demand is under pressure due to the intensification of the trade war and the resurgence of OPEC+ production.
According to the latest monthly report by the IEA, slower oil deliveries in recent months have led the agency to lower its forecast for consumption growth this year. Global markets are expected to face an oversupply of 600,000 barrels per day in 2025, and OPEC+’s unexpected decision last week could add another 400,000 barrels per day to this surplus.
The Paris-based agency stated: “The macroeconomic conditions underlying our oil demand forecasts worsened over the past month due to escalating trade tensions between the United States and several other countries. The surge in tariffs has increased downside risks to the global economy.”
Following OPEC+’s decision to gradually resume production increases starting in April, and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s immediate decision to impose tariffs on imports from China, Europe, Canada, and Mexico, oil was trading close to $71 per barrel in London.
OPEC and its allies in the OPEC+ group surprised oil traders on March 3 by approving a gradual production increase starting next month. Trump had previously urged the group to lower oil prices.
The IEA, which advises major economies, has revised its forecast for global oil consumption growth this year downward by about 100,000 barrels per day, estimating it at approximately 1 million barrels per day. According to the agency’s projections, global demand in 2025 will average 103.9 million barrels per day, with Asia accounting for nearly 60% of this year’s demand growth.
According to a Bloomberg report, the increase in demand will be lower than the 1.5 million barrels per day growth in oil supply, driven by production from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana.
The IEA stated that as a result of rising production in these countries, even if OPEC+ opts to cancel the remainder of its planned production increases, global markets will still be heading toward an oversupply.
By WPB
Oil, Bitumen, Price
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