According to WPB, investment levels in Norway’s oil and gas industry are poised to reach their highest point to date, largely propelled by increased capital directed toward operating oil and gas fields. This projection comes from Statistics Norway’s latest industry-wide assessment of planned expenditures.
The recent quarterly survey highlights that the total investment allocated to oil and gas operations, inclusive of pipeline infrastructure, is projected to reach approximately $26.6 billion (269 billion Norwegian crowns) in the near future. This marks a 6% increase from previous projections reported in the preceding quarter.
Statistics Norway attributes much of this upward revision to significantly higher investment forecasts in fields that are already operational. The agency emphasized that this specific category is the main force behind the elevated estimates.
However, despite the current boom, a gradual downturn in capital expenditures is anticipated to begin following this peak. Forecasts for upcoming years suggest a moderate contraction, with expected investments dropping to around $20.5 billion (207 billion crowns)—representing a 4.3% decrease compared to current projections.
The notable rise in investments observed over the past two years can be traced back to a tax incentive framework introduced in 2020. This policy encouraged companies to submit development and operational plans for several fields, thereby triggering a wave of new projects. Additionally, inflationary pressures and growing supply chain expenses have further inflated investment values during this period.
Although recent data indicate a moderate decline in field development investments—partly due to a limited number of new projects since 2022—this dip is being counterbalanced by strong investment activity in producing fields. According to Statistics Norway, the high spending in these active areas is sustaining overall investment levels.
Looking ahead, Norway’s ability to maintain oil and gas production will depend heavily on continued exploration efforts and successful discoveries. In previous assessments, national energy authorities have highlighted the importance of new resource identification and development to mitigate the anticipated production decline in the 2030s.
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate has projected a gradual reduction in output from the Norwegian Continental Shelf in coming years. However, the agency notes that the scale of this decline will be closely tied to both the volume of untapped resources identified and the efficiency with which they are developed and brought online.
By WPB
Bitumen, Oil, Gas
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