55 Billion in petroleum investments could flee Canada

If the Canadian federal government enforces stringent regulations on emissions starting in 2030, the Canadian petroleum and gas industry could lose $55 billion USD ($75 billion CAD) in upstream investments by 2035.

At the end of 2023, the Canadian federal government introduced a bill framework to impose an emissions cap in the petroleum and gas sector to reduce emissions.

This program proposes a 2030 emissions cap that is 35 to 38 percent below the 2019 levels. The petroleum and gas industry, along with the petroleum-producing province of Alberta, criticized this proposal, stating that the regulations would effectively limit petroleum and gas production.

A recent report indicated that in a stress scenario with production under a 40 percent emissions cap from 2030, the petroleum and gas sector would lose $55 billion USD in upstream investments between 2024 and 2035. Much lower upstream investment would result in a $181 billion USD reduction in GDP contribution between 2024 and 2035.

Lisa Baiton, CEO and President of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), stated that the new emissions cap and trading system add costs and uncertainties, suppressing investment and forcing producers to cut production to meet the emissions cap. Reduced Canadian petroleum and gas exports would be offset by other countries that might not have similar emissions and environmental standards as Canada.

Danielle Smith, the Premier of Alberta, commented on this and, in a joint statement with Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas, and Brian Jean, Minister of Energy and Minerals, said: "It’s time to scrap the cap. Ottawa's reckless scheme threatens not only Alberta jobs but Canada’s economic future. Billions in investment will vanish, retirement savings will be threatened, and families will feel the pinch."

According to Oil Price, we can reduce emissions and have a thriving economy, but only if Ottawa abandons the proposed emissions cap for petroleum and gas.