WPB: Turkey is actively engaging in discussions to initiate oil and gas exploration in Bulgaria, with parallel efforts underway for similar projects in Iraq and Libya, as revealed by Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar. The minister indicated that Turkiye Petrolleri AO (TPAO), the nation’s state-owned energy company, is set to enter into a partnership with a foreign company soon to explore hydrocarbon resources in Bulgaria’s portion of the Black Sea.
This move aligns with Ankara’s broader objectives to not only expand its domestic energy production but also to position itself as a crucial conduit between energy-producing nations to the east and south and consumer markets in the west. Turkey’s strategic geography and robust infrastructure are key enablers of this vision, a goal President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has long championed.
A previous agreement between Turkey and Bulgaria paved the way for Bulgargaz, Bulgaria’s state-owned gas supplier, to access 1.85 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually via the Strandzha-Malkoclar interconnection—covering nearly 60% of Bulgaria’s yearly consumption. Under this deal, Bulgargaz must pay €2 billion over 13 years to Turkey’s Botaş, regardless of the gas volume utilized. Bayraktar emphasized that the current export capacity stands at around 3.5 billion cubic meters, though there is potential for growth. He underlined the need to enhance the interconnection’s capacity, which currently falls short of the seven billion cubic meters Turkey is technically able to supply.
Libya, however, presents a more complex and politically sensitive opportunity. Despite years of conflict and a fragile political landscape, the country is gradually increasing its oil production. Chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation, Masoud Sulaiman, stated that the country aims to raise output from the present 1.4 million barrels per day to 2 million by 2028. Achieving this milestone demands significant investment—estimated at $3 to $4 billion—to reach an interim target of 1.6 million barrels per day. A new licensing round is expected to be approved soon. Given that oil constitutes more than 95% of Libya’s economic output, these developments carry significant implications for the country’s financial stability.
In an effort to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, Ankara had previously expressed readiness to scale up gas exports to the EU. The most feasible strategy involves re-exporting Azerbaijani gas via Turkish territory. However, this would necessitate an increased intake of Russian gas to balance domestic supply, creating a complex dynamic. Turkey is looking to secure firm purchase commitments from the EU before committing to infrastructure investments needed to support such exports. With access to the Southern Gas Corridor, five LNG terminals, seven pipelines, floating storage units, and underground storage facilities, Turkey has the assets required to serve as a major trading hub.
Meanwhile, European efforts to diversify energy sources have intensified, especially after the expiry of a long-term gas transit agreement through Ukraine. As a result, Russian gas no longer flows to most EU nations via that route. Ukrainian leadership emphasized the decision as a stand against Russian aggression. However, Russia still supplies gas to Hungary, Serbia, and Turkey through the TurkStream pipeline.
Azeri gas reaching Turkey could, in theory, be transported onward to the EU through Bulgaria, though such a plan entails significant logistical and financial challenges. Bayraktar, in an interview, reiterated the importance of increasing the volume of gas transported to Europe—potentially reaching 10 billion cubic meters annually—but insisted that this expansion hinges on guarantees from Brussels.
Turkey’s energy ambitions have gained additional traction following political upheaval in Syria. With the fall of the Assad regime, Turkish firms may find opportunities to secure lucrative reconstruction contracts. Should Syria transition to a more open economy, Turkey could construct a pipeline linking Syria to the Arab Gas Pipeline, which runs through Jordan and Egypt. This would create an attractive, cost-effective export route for regional producers such as Egypt and Israel, offering a viable alternative to liquefied natural gas exports.
Through a blend of strategic partnerships, infrastructure development, and geopolitical positioning, Turkey is steadily advancing its goal of becoming a central energy hub for the region and beyond.
By WPB
Oil, Gas, Bitumen
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