WPB: China’s oil demand is set to rise by 1.1% in 2025, driven by unexpectedly robust economic expansion and surging need for petrochemicals, according to projections from China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the state-run energy conglomerate.
In its recent forecast shared via Reuters, CNPC’s Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI) estimates the nation’s oil usage will climb to 765 million metric tons this year. This volume translates to roughly 15.36 million barrels per day (bpd), based on the conversion rate of 7.33 barrels per ton.
Wu Mouyuan, deputy head of CNPC’s research arm, stated that China’s demand for transportation fuels has already peaked. Nonetheless, the appetite for petrochemical products continues to rise, with China’s current per capita consumption at only about 60% of the level seen in advanced economies—leaving considerable room for growth in this sector.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) echoes CNPC’s view, asserting that China’s oil demand related to fuel consumption has likely reached its highest point. According to IEA analysts, as the Chinese economy gradually shifts away from industrial production toward a service-oriented model, and electric vehicle (EV) usage becomes more widespread in transportation, the prospects for further expansion in oil demand for combustion are diminishing.
On the pricing front, CNPC anticipates Brent crude to stay within the $65–$75 per barrel range in 2025, citing ongoing uncertainty surrounding global economic conditions. For the medium term, the company forecasts average prices between $60 and $70 per barrel from 2026 to 2030.
However, CNPC considers former U.S. President Donald Trump a major wildcard in the global oil market, with the potential to cause significant fluctuations depending on his stance regarding international trade and sanctions. Wu emphasized during the outlook event that “Trump’s influence represents the greatest unknown for oil price stability.”
Additionally, the trajectory of China’s economy remains a critical factor in balancing the oil market this year. After a disappointing performance in 2024, where the country narrowly achieved its GDP target amid inconsistent economic indicators, global analysts are closely observing how China’s growth story unfolds in 2025.
By WPB
Oil, Bitumen, Crude
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