According to WPB, Global bitumen prices recorded a modest decline in mid-February 2026, with benchmark levels easing to 3,280 Chinese yuan per metric ton on 13 February, a daily decrease of 0.67 percent. Despite a limited month-on-month increase of 2.76 percent, values remain more than 14 percent below the level observed during the same period last year. This movement is primarily attributed to five interconnected factors: seasonal contraction in paving activity across parts of the Northern Hemisphere; stable but non-expansionary crude oil pricing; consistent refinery output of heavy residues; elevated inventories following subdued winter consumption; and competitive export positioning in key Asian destinations. Together, these elements have contributed to a controlled downward adjustment rather than abrupt volatility.
Seasonal demand contraction represents the most immediate driver behind the current softness. In North America and large parts of Europe, winter conditions significantly restrict asphalt paving operations. Road construction and resurfacing projects slow or temporarily halt during colder months because low temperatures prevent effective asphalt compaction and curing. As a result, procurement volumes decline, leaving suppliers with reduced off-take. When demand falls while production levels remain stable, market equilibrium adjusts downward. This dynamic has been visible throughout January and early February, when procurement schedules were either postponed or scaled back. Although some southern regions maintain year-round construction cycles, their consumption levels are insufficient to offset the broader seasonal slowdown in major developed markets.
A second contributing factor lies in crude oil pricing stability. Bitumen production costs are directly linked to the value of crude oil, from which heavy residues are derived during refining. In early 2026, Brent crude has fluctuated within a relatively narrow range without generating upward momentum strong enough to lift downstream heavy products decisively. When crude markets lack bullish stimulus, refiners face limited justification to raise bitumen quotations aggressively. Instead, pricing tends to follow a restrained path. The absence of supply disruptions or major geopolitical shocks in February has reinforced this stability. Without external pressure elevating feedstock costs, bitumen values have remained anchored, allowing minor demand weakness to translate into incremental price decreases.
Consistent refinery output has further contributed to the adjustment. Many refineries, particularly in the Middle East and parts of Asia, have maintained steady production schedules for heavy petroleum fractions. Where fuel demand structures support balanced product slates, refiners have not significantly reduced heavy residue output. This continuity in supply ensures that availability remains adequate in export markets. When supply flows remain uninterrupted during a period of seasonal demand moderation, inventories accumulate gradually. Such accumulation exerts downward pressure on spot quotations as sellers compete to secure term contracts or clear volumes before the next consumption cycle accelerates.
Elevated inventories represent the fourth explanatory element. During late 2025, relatively moderate prices encouraged forward purchasing and storage in several importing regions. As winter dampened immediate usage, these stored volumes limited the need for additional spot purchases in early 2026. Buyers holding sufficient reserves have adopted a cautious stance, delaying fresh orders in anticipation of potential further softness. This purchasing discipline reinforces downward tendencies, as sellers adjust offers to stimulate transaction flow. Inventory-driven moderation is not unusual in the first quarter of each calendar year, yet its influence remains notable in February’s price formation.
Competitive export positioning in Asian markets has also shaped current levels. Suppliers from the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia have sought to secure market share in destinations where infrastructure programs remain active. Competitive pricing strategies, combined with freight considerations, have compressed margins. Exporters facing comparable production costs frequently adjust offers incrementally to remain attractive to importers. This competition discourages sharp upward movements, particularly in an environment where demand growth is steady but not accelerating.
Looking ahead to the remainder of February 2026, the outlook suggests relative stability with limited upward momentum unless crude oil benchmarks strengthen materially. As temperatures gradually rise in certain regions toward the end of the month, procurement inquiries may begin to increase modestly. However, significant demand recovery typically emerges closer to March and April, when paving conditions improve more broadly across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, absent an unexpected shift in crude supply fundamentals or logistical disruption, prices are likely to remain within a narrow corridor through the end of February.
Should Brent crude move above its recent trading band or should refinery maintenance schedules constrain heavy residue output, incremental gains could materialize. Conversely, if inventories remain elevated and procurement stays cautious, minor additional softness cannot be ruled out. On balance, prevailing indicators point toward consolidation rather than a pronounced upward or downward swing. The 0.67 percent daily reduction observed on 13 February appears consistent with routine seasonal recalibration rather than structural weakness.
Over the medium term, infrastructure expenditure plans in the Middle East, South Asia, and parts of Africa continue to underpin baseline demand. Government-funded highway expansions, airport resurfacing programs, and urban transport corridors provide durable consumption anchors. These structural drivers reduce the probability of sustained price erosion. Nonetheless, the near-term trajectory remains closely tied to crude oil developments and the pace at which winter inventories are drawn down.
In conclusion, February’s price movement reflects an interaction of predictable seasonal demand moderation, stable crude benchmarks, steady refinery output, inventory accumulation, and competitive export dynamics. Current data do not indicate systemic imbalance. Instead, they suggest a market adjusting methodically to cyclical conditions. Provided external energy markets remain calm, bitumen prices are expected to trade sideways through late February, with gradual firming more likely to emerge as spring construction activity resumes.
Overall, the recent adjustment in global bitumen prices reflects a seasonal and structurally predictable market movement rather than a fundamental imbalance. The combination of moderated winter demand in major Northern Hemisphere markets, stable crude oil benchmarks, steady refinery production of heavy residues, elevated inventories, and competitive export pricing has collectively contributed to the limited price decline observed in mid-February 2026. Current indicators suggest that the market remains fundamentally supported by ongoing infrastructure programs across the Middle East, Asia, and parts of Africa. Unless a significant shift occurs in crude oil supply dynamics or refinery output patterns, prices are expected to remain within a relatively narrow range through the remainder of February, with a gradual strengthening more likely as seasonal construction activity resumes in early spring.
By WPB
Bitumen, News, Examining, relative, stability, prices, February, bitumen, exports
