Some members of OPEC Plus, particularly Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia, continue to produce more petroleum than their allotted quotas, despite their commitment to adhere to these limits.

OPEC and OPEC Plus had reasons to be pleased as Brent crude prices surpassed $87 per barrel. However, the recent price increase is not due to the OPEC Plus members who consistently fail to meet their production quotas, but rather to strong demand signals and concerns about supply disruptions during the tropical storm season.

The overproduction by some OPEC Plus members, especially Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia, remains an issue for the group, which has plans to ease some of its voluntary cuts in the fourth quarter of this year, provided that market conditions allow.

Saudi Arabia has tried to set an example for other OPEC Plus members by adhering to its commitment to produce 9 million barrels of petroleum per day. However, other OPEC Plus producers, including Iraq, have not met their commitments despite constant promises of better discipline in the future.

OPEC has given opportunity to the violators until September 2025 to compensate for the excess production they have had in recent months. However, there has been no indication that Iraq and Kazakhstan have managed to reduce their production to the set quotas, let alone compensate for their previous excess production.

The non-compliance of some OPEC Plus members indicates that the group's years-long struggle to control cheaters is not over. It also sends a negative signal to the market that some of the production cuts are merely on paper, as multiple producers have failed to comply with the agreed cuts under the OPEC Plus pact.

Currently, the main offenders in OPEC Plus are Iraq (OPEC's second-largest producer) and Kazakhstan (a non-OPEC member), and this is not the first time they have produced above their quotas.

In the 2020-2021 period, Iraq and Kazakhstan produced above their quotas and failed to compensate for their excess production a year later when OPEC Plus implemented a compensation mechanism similar to the current one. According to internal OPEC Plus documents seen by Bloomberg, the additional production cuts that Iraq and Kazakhstan were supposed to make in 2021 increased further at that time.

This year, compensation plans for Iraq and Kazakhstan have also been prepared. Between January and March 2024 alone, Iraq's excess production reached 602,000 barrels per day, and Kazakhstan's reached 389,000 barrels per day.

At the OPEC Plus meeting in June, these producers were given opportunity until September 2025 to compensate for their previous excess production.

Based on recent data from OPEC production surveys by Reuters and Bloomberg, neither Iraq nor Kazakhstan has succeeded in reducing their production to the promised levels.

Reuters' monthly survey showed that OPEC's petroleum production increased in June for the second consecutive month due to higher production in Nigeria and Iran. The biggest production cut was by Iraq, which reduced its output by 50,000 barrels per day, but it still produced above its OPEC Plus quota in June.

According to secondary source statistics published in OPEC's monthly report, Iraq failed to adhere to the production ceiling of 4 million barrels per day, producing 4.195 million barrels per day in May, a reduction of 7,000 barrels per day from April, but still about 200,000 barrels per day above its target.

Bloomberg's survey of OPEC production in June showed that Iraq reduced its output by 30,000 barrels per day but still produced 250,000 barrels per day above its quota. This figure does not include compensatory cuts.

Kazakhstan also increased its petroleum production in June, exceeding its quota. According to Reuters calculations, the country's production last month reached 1.538 million barrels per day, higher than in May and about 70,000 barrels per day above the quota of 1.468 million barrels per day.

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy announced in June that independent sources approved by OPEC Plus found that the country produced 45,000 barrels per day above its quota in May. Kazakhstan will address the issue of excess production and fully comply with the production level in June.

Russia also promised to fully implement its production quota in June after producing above the agreed level under the OPEC Plus pact in May.