According to WPB, Singapore's bitumen market faces renewed supply pressure after expectations of a production recovery in December 2026 weakened significantly. Recent market assessments indicate that local refiners continue to struggle with limited access to suitable heavy crude oil, restricting bitumen output and the availability of spot cargoes. While production had previously been expected to increase in December, market participants now anticipate little improvement, with output at one refinery potentially declining further.
The change in production expectations represents an important development for Singapore, one of Southeast Asia's major bitumen trading and supply hubs. The market has experienced supply constraints for several months, but the earlier possibility of increased refinery output had offered buyers some prospect of improved cargo availability toward the end of the year. That expectation has now weakened, extending concerns about Singapore-origin supply into December.
The principal constraint remains the availability of heavier crude oil grades suitable for producing petroleum bitumen. Bitumen production depends on both the characteristics of refinery feedstock and refinery operating configurations. Reduced access to heavy, bitumen-rich crude limits the ability of producers to maintain output, even when demand for paving-grade material remains commercially significant.
The supply pressure is reflected in Singapore's export performance during 2026. Previously published trade figures showed that the country exported approximately 430,511 metric tons of bitumen between April and August, representing a 62.5% decline from the corresponding period of 2025. August exports alone fell to 68,358 tons from 225,930 tons a year earlier, a decrease of 69.7%.
These figures established the scale of the export contraction before the latest deterioration in December production expectations. The new development concerns the prospect of continued restrictions on refinery output rather than another completed reduction in production volumes. No specific December output figure has been announced in the available market assessment.
Despite constrained supply, Singapore bitumen prices have eased modestly during November. According to WPB's assessment for the second week of November 2026, Singapore-origin 60/70 bulk bitumen stood at USD 835 ±5 per metric ton FOB, while drummed material was assessed at USD 905 ±5 per ton FOB. Both quotations declined by USD 5 per ton from the preceding week.
The latest prices indicate that limited supply has not prevented a gradual decline in export assessments. However, the movement remains relatively small compared with the sharper reductions reported in parts of Europe and the Mediterranean. Singapore's bitumen market continues to reflect a combination of restricted production and cautious purchasing, rather than a broad recovery in physical supply.
Demand conditions across Southeast Asia have also changed. Many importers have already secured their November requirements, while some buyers are relying on contracted December shipments instead of entering the spot market. High procurement costs, project delays, and competition from alternative supply origins have reduced buying urgency.
Vietnam provides a clear example of this adjustment. Importers have increasingly considered bitumen from China and Malaysia, with several projects accepting these alternative origins. This has reduced reliance on Singapore-origin cargoes, while rainfall in northern Vietnam has also affected paving activity.
Thailand's refiners have continued prioritizing domestic customers and contractual supply commitments, limiting the volume available for additional regional export sales. In Malaysia, a major domestic refiner has temporarily suspended production, while moderate demand and inventory management have influenced purchasing activity. These conditions have contributed to an uneven supply environment across Southeast Asia.
South Korea has followed a different pricing trend. Export quotations have declined, and producers have offered additional cargoes for December loading as demand from China weakens during the winter construction slowdown. These developments provide Asian importers with alternative supply options even as Singapore's own production remains constrained.
The divergence between Asian and European markets has also become more pronounced. European and Mediterranean bitumen quotations have declined more sharply, widening the price difference with Asian supply. This has increased interest in long-distance shipments from Europe and the Americas to selected Asia-Pacific destinations, particularly where delivered costs are competitive with regional offers.
For international bitumen buyers, this changing trade pattern makes the distinction between FOB prices and final delivered costs particularly important. Cargo availability, product specifications, shipping distances, freight rates, packaging, and delivery schedules determine whether alternative origins can compete with Singapore in individual destination markets.
The supply outlook also has implications for asphalt producers and road contractors in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, and other regional markets. Limited Singapore spot availability can influence procurement decisions and encourage diversification of supply sources. At the same time, softer purchasing demand and increased competition from other exporting countries are placing downward pressure on some regional quotations.
Singapore's market therefore presents a combination of two opposing developments: a weaker outlook for domestic bitumen production and a gradual easing of export prices. The balance between limited refinery supply and reduced buying urgency is shaping trading conditions toward the end of 2026.
The latest assessment highlights the strategic importance of heavy crude availability for Singapore's bitumen industry. With the anticipated December production recovery no longer reflected in prevailing market expectations, Singapore-origin spot cargoes are expected to remain limited. For the wider Asia-Pacific market, the development reinforces the growing role of alternative suppliers, shifting regional trade flows, and delivered-cost competitiveness in determining bitumen procurement decisions.
By WPB
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