According to WPB, India’s bitumen market has delivered its first clear positive year-on-year demand signal after several months of severe supply disruption and weak consumption. Oil ministry data released on August 6 show that bitumen consumption in July increased 8.5% from the same month in 2025, even though demand fell approximately 16.9% from June as the monsoon continued to restrict road construction activity.
The two percentages tell different parts of the same story. The month-on-month decline confirms that seasonal pressure remains significant. Heavy rainfall limits paving activity, delays project schedules and reduces the amount of asphalt that can be laid during the main monsoon period. But the return to positive annual growth suggests that underlying bitumen consumption is now stronger than it was at the same point last year, despite unusually difficult conditions in India’s supply chain.
The July figure is particularly important because it follows two months in which annual bitumen demand remained deeply negative. In May, consumption fell about 39% year-on-year and was 32% lower than in April. June brought the beginning of a sequential recovery, with consumption rising 14.7% from May, but it was still approximately 18% below June 2025. July has now moved the annual comparison from an 18% decline to an 8.5% increase.
That progression makes July more than a routine monthly fluctuation. It suggests that demand conditions have improved substantially from the extreme weakness seen earlier in the year. However, it should not be interpreted as evidence that India’s bitumen market has completely normalized.
The 16.9% decline from June remains significant. Road construction in India is highly seasonal, and July sits inside the country’s main monsoon period. Rainfall recovered sharply toward the end of the month, with heavy to very heavy rain recorded across several important regions and forecasts for widespread activity across central and western India. National rainfall for July ultimately finished close to normal, with a slight surplus after a particularly weak June.
There is also an important historical comparison. In July 2025, Indian bitumen consumption fell 32% from June as the monsoon disrupted road activity. This year’s 16.9% monthly decline is therefore considerably smaller than the seasonal contraction recorded one year earlier.
That does not eliminate the possibility of a favorable base effect. July 2025 was already a weak month, which makes positive annual growth easier to achieve. But the combination of an 8.5% year-on-year increase and a much smaller month-on-month decline than last year provides stronger evidence of resilience than the annual percentage alone.
India’s broader petroleum demand also strengthened in July. Total fuel consumption reached 19.92 million metric tons, its highest level since March. That was approximately 3% higher than June and also around 3% above July 2025. Gasoline consumption rose 9.2% year-on-year, while diesel demand increased about 10% annually, although diesel remained 6% below June.
For the bitumen industry, however, the most important question is whether demand is recovering faster than supply conditions.
Earlier in the crisis, the answer clearly appeared to be no.
India imported approximately 236,000 metric tons of bitumen in April 2026, compared with about 297,000 tons in April 2025 and 274,000 tons in April 2024. The year-on-year decline was therefore slightly above 20%. Contractors and road companies reported shortages and sharply higher prices as disruption in the Middle East restricted supplies and complicated maritime transportation.
The pressure was particularly serious because India normally depends on imported material for a substantial part of its bitumen requirement. Earlier industry estimates placed the import share at around 40%, with the Gulf providing most of those external volumes. Shipping disruption therefore did not affect only a marginal source of supply; it affected an important part of the country’s normal road-material balance.
The situation became visible at the project level. Contractors in several states reported difficulty securing enough bitumen for active road projects. Some projects slowed or suspended asphalt-laying operations as material prices increased and contracted suppliers were unable to provide normal volumes. The disruption forced road authorities and contractors to reconsider procurement schedules, price-adjustment mechanisms and alternative sources.
Against that background, July’s 8.5% annual growth becomes much more significant.
It suggests that physical consumption has begun to recover even though the market has not received clear evidence that imported supply, freight costs or Gulf shipping conditions have returned to their pre-crisis state.
This distinction matters. Consumption data measure material actually absorbed by the domestic market. They do not explain whether that material came from higher domestic refinery supply, previously accumulated inventories, stronger imports, changes in regional distribution or a combination of those factors.
There is not yet enough publicly available July import data to conclude that India’s bitumen import problem has been resolved.
The safest interpretation is therefore that domestic demand is showing resilience despite continuing supply uncertainty, rather than that the supply shortage itself has disappeared.
That difference could have important consequences for prices.
If consumption continues strengthening while imports remain below historical requirements, domestic refiners and existing stocks would have to carry a greater share of the market. The resulting competition for available material could limit downward price pressure even during the monsoon, when demand would normally be seasonally weaker.
If import availability improves at the same time, the market could become more balanced. But imported prices would still depend heavily on freight, vessel availability, insurance and the condition of Gulf shipping routes. A cargo that appears competitive on an FOB basis can become considerably more expensive once delivered to an Indian port.
This is particularly relevant to Gulf-origin bulk bitumen. Shipping from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE remains exposed to the broader disruption affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Specialized bitumen carriers must enter the Gulf, reach the loading terminal, maintain the product at the required temperature and then secure an acceptable exit route.
India’s crude market has already demonstrated how severe that transportation premium can become. Extraordinary tanker rates for Iraqi crude show that physical proximity alone no longer guarantees cheap delivered supply when shipowners attach a large risk premium to Gulf voyages.
Bulk bitumen has an additional constraint because the available fleet is smaller and more specialized than the crude tanker market. Heated and insulated vessels cannot easily be replaced by ordinary product tankers. Even if Gulf suppliers have sufficient material available, the number of owners willing to accept a nomination can influence delivered prices.
The July demand figure therefore increases the importance of India’s alternative supply options.
South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and other Asian origins could become more attractive when Gulf freight becomes unusually expensive. However, alternative supply is not automatically cheaper. Longer sailing distances, regional refinery economics, vessel positioning and the availability of suitable bitumen grades all determine whether a cargo can compete with Gulf material on a delivered basis.
Domestic Indian refineries will also remain central to the balance. Higher local production would reduce pressure on imports, but bitumen output does not depend solely on crude throughput. Refiners must decide how to allocate heavy refinery streams between paving-grade bitumen, fuel oil and secondary conversion units. Product margins and crude selection can therefore influence bitumen availability even when overall refinery operations remain strong.
The July data may also change buying behavior.
During the earlier part of the crisis, exceptionally high prices and uncertainty encouraged some buyers to delay purchases where construction schedules permitted. A market returning to positive annual consumption could encourage contractors and distributors to rebuild stocks before the major post-monsoon paving period, particularly if they believe freight and import availability will remain unpredictable.
That could create a second demand effect: actual road consumption followed by inventory rebuilding.
There is not yet sufficient public data to confirm that such stockbuilding has started, but it is one of the indicators the market should monitor as the monsoon progresses.
Weather could become increasingly relevant. India’s weather authorities expect August rainfall to be below the long-term average after rainfall recovered to around normal levels in July. If conditions become drier across important road-building regions, paving activity could resume more quickly than under a normal heavy-monsoon pattern. That would potentially strengthen bitumen demand further, although the regional distribution of rainfall will matter more to individual construction projects than the national average.
For suppliers, this creates an important timing issue. If road activity accelerates before marine supply and freight normalize, India could move from seasonal demand weakness into a stronger purchasing period while logistics remain constrained.
The July figure should therefore not be treated simply as another petroleum-consumption statistic. It may represent the beginning of a shift in India’s bitumen balance.
In May, the market faced a 39% annual contraction in consumption. In June, the decline narrowed to about 18%. In July, the market moved to 8.5% annual growth.
At the same time, July consumption remained 16.9% below June, confirming that the monsoon has not disappeared from the demand equation. The important point is that seasonal weakness is now occurring on top of a stronger annual demand base.
For the Indian bitumen market, that combination is potentially more important than either number by itself.
The immediate question is no longer only whether India can secure enough imported bitumen. It is whether domestic and imported supply can keep pace if consumption continues recovering as road construction emerges from the monsoon period.
The key indicators will be August consumption, fresh import volumes, domestic refinery bitumen output, bulk freight into the west coast of India, Gulf vessel availability and contractor purchasing behavior.
Until those numbers are available, July should be interpreted as an early recovery signal rather than proof of full normalization.
But the direction has clearly changed. After months in which India’s bitumen market was defined by falling imports, shortages and negative annual consumption, demand has returned to positive year-on-year territory. If that continues while supply remains expensive and uncertain, India could enter the next paving cycle with a stronger demand base and a still-fragile supply chain.
By WPB
News, Bitumen, India, Bitumen Demand, Road Construction, Monsoon, Bitumen Imports, Asphalt Market, Refinery Supply, Shipping
