According to WPB, Azerbaijan's petroleum bitumen exports increased 3.5-fold during the first nine months of 2026, even as domestic production declined by 33.8% over the same period. The latest customs figures reveal a widening divergence between the country's export performance and refinery output, raising questions about domestic supply allocation, inventory movements, and the sustainability of export growth.
Data from Azerbaijan's State Customs Committee show that the country exported 14,948 metric tons of petroleum bitumen worth $4.63 million between January and September 2026. During the corresponding period of 2025, exports totaled just 4,314 metric tons, valued at approximately $1.13 million. Export volumes increased 3.5-fold, while export value rose 4.1-fold, indicating that export revenue grew faster than the quantity shipped.
The difference is also reflected in the average declared customs value. Based on official figures, the statistical export value increased from approximately $262 per metric ton in January–September 2025 to nearly $310 per metric ton in the same period of 2026, an increase of about 18.4%. This calculation reflects the aggregate value of recorded exports and should not be interpreted as a current FOB quotation or a benchmark market price for Azerbaijani bitumen.
The latest figures also extend the upward trend recorded earlier this year. During January–August 2026, Azerbaijan exported approximately 12,310 metric tons of bitumen worth $3.74 million. The nine-month totals indicate that another 2,638 metric tons, valued at approximately $891,000, were added in September. Compared with the eight-month figures, export growth for the year to date accelerated from 2.9-fold to 3.5-fold in volume terms.
However, Azerbaijan's production statistics present a contrasting picture. According to the State Statistical Committee, domestic petroleum bitumen output reached 126,400 metric tons during January–September 2026, down 33.8% from the corresponding period of 2025. Finished bitumen inventories held by industrial enterprises stood at 13,600 metric tons on October 1. The latest export volume was equivalent to approximately 11.8% of reported production during the nine-month period, although this comparison does not establish that all exported material came from production during those same months.
The simultaneous increase in exports and decline in production does not necessarily indicate a contradiction in the national supply balance. Export growth may reflect changes in domestic consumption, inventory withdrawals, differences in shipment timing, or a greater allocation of available material to foreign customers. The published data do not establish which of these factors has been most influential, and no direct conclusion can be drawn about a sustained decline in domestic demand.
The development is particularly relevant to Azerbaijan's refining sector. The Heydar Aliyev Oil Refinery, operated by SOCAR, plays a central role in domestic petroleum product supply, while ongoing modernization aims to improve product quality and expand export capabilities. Nevertheless, the latest statistics do not establish whether changes in refinery operations, feedstock allocation, or export strategy directly explain the divergence between bitumen production and overseas shipments.
For regional bitumen markets, Azerbaijan's export growth suggests that more material has been reaching foreign buyers despite weaker domestic output. Its geographical position offers potential access to neighboring markets in the South Caucasus and surrounding regions, although the latest aggregate customs figures do not identify individual destination countries or confirm changes in specific trade routes.
Export volumes also remain relatively modest in international terms. Petroleum bitumen accounted for just 0.02% of Azerbaijan's total export value during the first nine months of 2026. The importance of the latest figures therefore lies primarily in the changing relationship between domestic production, inventories, and export activity rather than any fundamental shift in Azerbaijan's position within the global bitumen market.
Looking ahead, the key question is whether Azerbaijan can maintain higher export volumes while production remains significantly below last year's level. A recovery in refinery output or weaker seasonal domestic road construction demand could support export availability. Conversely, continued production weakness combined with stronger export commitments could place additional pressure on inventories and domestic supply.
For bitumen traders and regional buyers, the next production, inventory, and customs updates will be essential to determining whether Azerbaijan's export expansion represents a sustainable shift in market supply or a temporary adjustment within a tighter domestic production environment.
By WPB
Azerbaijan Bitumen Exports, Azerbaijan Bitumen Production, Petroleum Bitumen, SOCAR, Heydar Aliyev Oil Refinery, Bitumen Trade, Azerbaijan Customs, Bitumen Inventories, South Caucasus, Bitumen Market Analysis
