India's Decline in Russian Oil Imports: Sanctions Pressure, Oil Flow Redirection, and Impact on Refineries

According to WPB, while India is known as the third largest oil importer and consumer in the world, commercial data show that its imports from Russia reached its lowest level in the last two years. this decrease is due to the increase in western sanctions pressure and changing priorities of Indian refineries in order to find alternative sources and increase OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) share in imports.

Tougher sanctions by the United States and the EU have created several challenges for the Russian oil flow to India. the sanctions imposed new restrictions on Russian insurance, transportation and financing of Russian oil, and as a result western companies are reluctant to cooperate with Indian companies in this regard. as a result, Russian oil imports to India went down by about 22 % in December compared to November, hitting 1.38 million barrels per day. this dramatic decline indicates the negative impact of the sanctions on trade relations between India and Russia.

In contrast, OPEC share remarkably increased and that of 53.2% had the highest level in the last 11 months. this change in the composition of imports represents a shift in the direction of the overall direction of the Indian oil market and the increase of OPEC influence in this market.

Decrease in Russian oil imports, which has always been an important option for Indian refineries due to the lower price, will have considerable economic impacts on the industry. by reducing the availability of cheap oil from Russia, the profitability of Indian refineries will potentially be harmed. they are directed to suppliers in the Middle East, the United States and South America, which typically have higher prices. this may lead to an increase in the price of gasoline and other petroleum products, including asphalt in India, putting more pressure on consumers.

In response to these developments, the Indian refineries are reviewing their strategies. they are trying to find their resources to meet their needs and reduce their dependence on a particular resource. this new approach includes long-term contracts with oil-producing countries in the middle east, increasing oil imports from the United States and South America, as well as the feasibility of investing in oil production in other parts of the world.

Despite the efforts to find alternative sources, Indian refineries face several challenges. oil prices, market volatility,international sanctions and fierce competition in global markets are all factors that can affect the profitability and performance of the industry.

Reliance Industries is one of the largest energy companies in the world and known as the biggest buyer of Russian oil, has exerted significant changes in its import strategy. the company saw a sharp decline in its imports after receiving crude oil under its main contract with the Russian oil giant. as of December 10, the volume of the company’s oil imports fell to the lowest in the last two years. this unexpected move came from large fluctuations in the private sector and urged analysts to review new trends that could affect prices and global energy flows.

On the other hand, while the private sector underwent changes, Indian state refineries were more stable. these government institutions remain committed to their policy of providing oil needs through Russian suppliers, which are not on the list of sanctions in the west, and continued their imports without disruption. this approach shows India 's attempt to maintain balance in its energy resources according to the complex geopolitical situation.

Despite these cuts and changes in the behavior of private shoppers, general statistics show that Russia managed to retain its position as a supplier of oil for India.

Statistics of December as well as the total performance of the first nine months of the current fiscal year (which continued until march 31, 2026) showed that after Russia, Iraq and SaudiArabia were ranked second in oil exports to India. this shows the fundamental changes in the Indian and Australian energy map to buy from northern resources.

The study of long - term trend suggests that Russia's share of total imports of Indian oil in 2025 has declined to 33.3 percent.this decrease can be due to several factors such as changes in global prices, logistical constraints or diversification into the energy supply basket by new Delhi.

However, early data may be misleading as part of the Russianoil consignments arriving in Indian ports in December have been evacuated for logistical or operational reasons in January. This delay consequently causes the recorded figures for December to be lower than expected and the figures for January to be higher than expected. 

In this regard, considering shipments in transit and pending unloading, India's average oil imports from Russia are expected to increase to around 1.2-1.4 million barrels per day in January. the figure shows that the demand for Russian oil in Indianrefineries remains high and the December reduction likely was a temporary drop.

OPEC share in crude oil imports continues to be ascending.according to the year 2025 statistics, the share of OPEC oil from the Indian oil market has experienced a rise in growth rate by 50 percent compared to 49 percent in the past year, while in contrast, Russia’s share declined to 33.3 percent. this figure was reported to be about 36 percent for Russia in 2024.

Since the start of the Ukrainian conflict in 2022, India became the main Russian overseas oil customer at cheaper prices. these purchase practices follow the negative reactions of western governments. these countries put Russia's energy field under severe sanctions, believing that the money from the sale of oil could provide the necessary funds for Moscow's military operations.

In the past year, the United States raised tariffs to as high as 50% to form a kind of punishment and response to the massive expansion of Russian oil by new Delhi.

Finally, the two sides are currently engaged in talks to achieve a possible business alliance.

By WPB

Bitumen, News, Maritime, Indian, Trade, Oil, Russia, OPEC