Turkey is willing to export more gas to the European Union, most of which will be supplied by Azerbaijan, but there is a condition for this.

Turkey has announced that it is ready to significantly increase its natural gas exports to the European Union, but this will not be easy or cheap. The most likely route for this is the re-export of Azerbaijani gas through Turkey. This, in turn, requires Turkey to import more gas from Russia to compensate for the shortfall.

However, this goes against the European Union's goal of eliminating gas imports from Russia to prevent financing Moscow's war in Ukraine. Under Turkey's plan, the money the EU spends on purchasing natural gas from Russia would go to Turkey, but the revenue for Russia would remain more or less the same as before.

Ankara wants to play the role of savior and strengthen its influence over Brussels but wants some guarantees from the EU before starting to invest in the necessary infrastructure.

In recent years, Europe has tried to replace Russian gas, which is transited through Ukraine, with other sources. In 2019, Russia and Ukraine signed a five-year pipeline transit agreement to send Russian natural gas to EU countries. Despite the war and sanctions, both countries have adhered to this agreement.

But the situation is soon to change as Ukraine has announced it does not intend to renew the agreement after it expires at the end of 2024. The EU also has no desire to revive this agreement.

Azerbaijan is key to any Turkish plan to increase gas exports to the EU. Azerbaijani natural gas sold to Turkey can be re-exported to Europe via Bulgaria, but not without effort and cost.

Alparslan Bayraktar, Turkey's energy minister, expressed interest in the Bulgarian route in an interview with Bloomberg, mentioning the potential to increase export volumes to the EU up to 10 billion cubic meters per year while sending a clear message to Brussels that this will not happen without some demand guarantees.

According to Bayraktar, the current export capacity through Bulgaria is only about 3.5 billion cubic meters per year, but from a technical standpoint, Turkey can strengthen this connection.

The Turkish energy minister stated: "What we need is to increase the connection capacity between Turkey and Bulgaria, which currently can only receive about half of the seven billion cubic meters per year that Turkey can technically supply."

In 2023, Turkey and Bulgaria signed a contract allowing Bulgaria's state-owned company Bulgargaz to import 1.85 billion cubic meters of gas annually through the Strandzha-Malkoclar border point with Turkey, equivalent to 60% of Bulgaria's annual demand. Whether Bulgargaz uses this capacity or not, it must pay Turkey's gas company Botas 2 billion euros in service fees over 13 years.

According to Oil Price, the ball is now in Brussels' court, and there is not much time left to replace gas transit through Ukraine. According to research firm Rystad Energy, Europe needs 7.2 billion cubic meters of more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports annually to make up for this shortfall, and it seems Ankara holds all the cards.