Sea level rise becomes a threat to petroleum exports

Researchers have warned that the rise in sea levels could disrupt the shipping of crude oil and seriously jeopardize energy security in import-dependent countries like China, South Korea, and Japan.

In a report, the think tank China Water Risk (CWR) cautioned that melting ice and rising sea levels due to increasing temperatures could lead to several meters of sea level rise. This would not only submerge major petroleum ports and disrupt global petroleum trade but also flood coastal refineries and petrochemical facilities.

The 2021 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that, based on current trends, the average sea level could rise by more than one meter by the end of the century, adding that a two-meter rise cannot be ruled out.

After conducting a stress test on maritime infrastructure used for crude oil export and import, the think tank reported that ports and storage facilities at lower elevations relative to sea level would be vulnerable to rising sea levels.

According to the report, 12 out of 15 petroleum tanker terminals are expected to be affected by a one-meter sea level rise, including five terminals in Asia.

The think tank's report indicates that up to 42% of global crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates are at risk, impacting 45% of crude oil shipments to China, the United States, South Korea, and the Netherlands.

Since Asian countries will be the most affected by rising sea levels, they must lead in improving the resilience of port infrastructure, not just in transitioning away from petroleum.

The report warns that Japan and South Korea import about three-quarters of their needed petroleum through ports vulnerable to a one-meter sea level rise.