According to WPB, global oil consumption has reached its highest level ever recorded, reflecting persistent demand growth—especially among developing economies—despite emerging signals of transformation within the global energy sector.
The latest data compiled for the past year indicates that oil usage worldwide climbed to 101.8 million barrels per day, slightly exceeding the previous peak and marking a 0.7% rise. This ongoing growth, averaging 1% annually over the last decade, is predominantly driven by non-OECD countries.
The United States continues to hold the lead in global oil consumption, accounting for nearly one-fifth of total demand. Although its daily use experienced a slight dip compared to the previous year, its long-term consumption trend remains upward. China follows as the second-largest consumer, but unlike its previous pattern of rapid expansion, its demand declined by 1.2%, hinting at a potential plateau. Analysts suggest this could be linked to slowed economic momentum and structural shifts such as transport electrification. In contrast, India’s oil demand surged by over 3%, driven by rapid industrial growth and an expanding middle class, positioning the country to become the third-largest consumer in the near future.
When viewed through a broader lens, oil demand among OECD countries remained almost flat, while non-OECD demand continued to rise at a steady pace. This divergence further underscores the uneven energy transition between developed and developing economies.
On the production front, global output—including crude oil, natural gas liquids, and other associated liquids—reached a new peak of 96.9 million barrels per day. This figure represents not only a recovery beyond pre-pandemic levels but also an indication of the sector’s resilience. However, underlying this headline is a more complex narrative.
The U.S. remains the top producer globally, with a total output of 20.1 million barrels daily. Yet, a considerable portion of that figure comprises natural gas liquids such as propane and ethane, which serve specific roles in refining rather than as direct transport fuels. Stripping out these byproducts, actual crude oil and condensate production stood at 13.2 million barrels per day—still a record, but with a slower growth rate compared to previous years. This may suggest that American output is nearing its natural limit unless substantial investment renews momentum.
Russia ranked second in oil production, with a daily average of 10.2 million barrels of crude and condensate, reflecting a 3.1% decrease. Sanctions and logistical barriers continue to weigh on its output, though exports to key markets like China and India remain robust. Saudi Arabia saw an even sharper decline of 4.2%, dropping its daily production to the lowest level since the early 2010s. This downturn is attributed to both strategic production cuts and internal shifts toward refining and petrochemical investments.
The report also examines the distribution of global oil reserves—most recently assessed at 1.7 trillion barrels. These reserves would sustain current production rates for over five decades, although they are unevenly distributed across countries. Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Iran hold the largest shares, while the U.S. reserves are more limited, reflecting a mature extraction base and stricter classification standards.
Several emerging trends are shaping the landscape. Saudi Arabia’s reduced output may signal a recalibration of its long-term production strategy. The U.S.’s growing reliance on natural gas liquids highlights an evolving production profile that could influence refining infrastructure needs. Meanwhile, a lack of growth in global reserves, despite rising demand, points to limited investment in new exploration and development—raising concerns about future supply stability.
India’s rapid rise in demand, coupled with relatively modest domestic production, positions it as a key player in shaping the future of global oil markets. Strategic decisions in this country regarding refining capacity, storage, and renewable energy development are likely to influence regional and global demand dynamics.
Notably, Guyana has emerged as a new entrant to the global oil landscape. With production rising from zero to over 600,000 barrels per day in just five years and reserves estimated at 11 billion barrels, it is expected to join the ranks of top producers within the decade.
While oil supply and demand currently appear balanced, this equilibrium rests on factors that remain volatile and sensitive to geopolitical and economic shifts. Key uncertainties include the trajectory of Chinese demand, the sustainability of U.S. shale output without major capital reinvestment, and potential disruptions stemming from global tensions.
In conclusion, the latest review confirms that oil continues to be a cornerstone of the global energy system. Demand from emerging economies remains strong, even as producers navigate an increasingly complex landscape of transition, investment hesitancy, and geopolitical pressure. Despite ongoing conversations around decarbonization, oil’s centrality to the global economy—both as a fuel and as a strategic asset—remains intact.
By Bitumenmag
Oil, Petroleum, Crude
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