Russia Expands August Oil Export Schedule Following Refinery Disruptions

WPB citations that Russia has expanded its crude export schedule from western ports by some 200,000 barrels per day in August, surpassing the initial estimate. This follows Ukrainian drone strikes that severely affected refinery operations, leaving more unrefined crude available for shipment.

Despite the revision, the export prospects remain shaky. Continuous strikes and constant rescheduling of repair dates bring uncertainty into real volumes being loaded. An industry observer noted that repair timelines change very frequently and it is difficult to figure out how much Russian crude can ship in the near future.

Normally, Russian suppliers would have received finalized loading plans for September well in advance. However, no such schedules had been approved at the time of the report. State pipeline monopoly Transneft and the Energy Ministry declined to make an official statement regarding the matter.

This instability is being witnessed as Moscow doubles down on its efforts to achieve more revenues, even in the presence of continued Western sanctions and diplomatic pressure from the United States aimed at discouraging leading buyers from maintaining higher levels of Russian crude purchases.

Industry estimates place Primorsk, Novorossiisk, and Ust-Luga shipments at around 2 million barrels daily, from the prior plan of 1.8 million. The increased hike comes following a barrage of ten Russian refineries being brought offline, representing a combined near 17 percent of in-country refining capacity—or roughly 1.1 million barrels daily—that were down.

In addition to the refinery strikes, Ukraine struck the Druzhba pipeline and the Unecha pumping station in Bryansk province, both major pipelines for crude destined for Ust-Luga. The attack on this infrastructure would reduce Russia's export capacity by as much as half a million barrels per day, as estimated. Compounding the issue, tanker availability towards the end of August has been limited, contributing to the restriction on the level of shipments.

Now, the Ust-Luga port is running at half of its planned capacity of 700,000 barrels a day with no designated restoration period specified. The displaced volumes are being redirected to Novorossiisk and Primorsk, industry sources added.

Overall, western terminal export volumes tend to be highly correlated with refinery output since the majority of the processing units are located in central Russia. Eastward flows, on the other hand, are not strongly affected by such bottlenecks.

By WPB

Shipping, Oil, Crude